Risks and Luck are two sides of the same coin, sometimes the same exact same side of the same coin but viewed from different angles, or at different times of the day or an epoch or with varying contexts.
Whilst I am firmly of the opinion that all causes have an effect and that studying the previous cause of an effect may be a great way to repeat that effect, the truth is that, there are often certain elements mixed into the causes which are beyond our individual control, which when varied even ever so slightly could result in massive variations in the effect.
Two of these elements are luck and risk. And there are many more. And most are outside of our immediate control. But we can choose how to leverage or respond to them, if only we are aware of them.
Luck, also perfect timing. You may have heard ‘there is no great idea like that one whose time has arrived’ (paraphrased).
Risk, sudden or not so sudden changes in dynamics, that can result in outcomes other than intended. So, risk may have a positive impact (luck?). Sometimes, negative impact (bad luck or risk as we most know it). When risks turn out positive, it may turn a bad situation around or amplify a good one. And the converse will be the case of risk were to have a negative impact.
So do we then just pray to the gods of risk and luck? Ask for favours and blessings?
Perhaps, we develop deep awareness of the many moving parts outside of our immediate control which when mixed in with our causes may lead to less than desired outcomes or the amplification of the desired outcome – and as much as is possible or practical, we factor these into our causes.
Perhaps, we celebrate our successes and cry over our failures, without failing to reflect on the many things that may have afforded us an advantage (in the case of successes) or disadvantage (in the case of failures) and never forget to address these in future endeavours.
Big corporations, (those we have come to admire, as well as those we have come to hate) know this. And that is one of the reasons they have entire teams devoted to monitoring and reporting on external environmental factors in their immediate markets. The insights generated are factored into strategy and investment decisions. You should do the same too.